Status: research — no live trading yet

belief.capital

An AI-driven trading system across prediction markets, onchain rails, and eventually traditional venues — built on the principles behind Renaissance Technologies' actual track record, applied to markets that resolve once and vanish.

Principles

Many small, uncorrelated edges

No single signal is expected to carry the book. The aim is a portfolio of small, independently-verified edges across markets, not one big correct call.

Obsessive data hygiene

Bad data produces confident, wrong backtests. Cleaning and validating data sources is treated as core work, not overhead.

Rigorous backtesting

Every strategy is tested against its actual constraints — fees, slippage, liquidity, resolution risk — before it touches real capital.

Capacity discipline

An edge that stops working once it's sized up is not an edge, it's a coincidence. Strategies are sized to what the market can actually absorb.

Where this actually stands